Tag Archives: @Stilgherrian

Cybercrime Stats: From Bad to Bad

Since vulnerabilities are a cornerstone of computer crime, stats on it are of interest to us. Statistics on cybercrime have always been dodgy; more so than real-world crime statistics. When your car is broken into or stolen, you know it. More often than not, you will report it to the police. In the computer world, an un-measurable number of intrusions happen every day. The rate of malware infection, DoS attacks, and other virtual crimes are not only difficult impossible to measure, they potentially go unreported more often than not.

Classically, the only number thrown around regarding damages from cybercrime has been this mythical one trillion dollars. Yes, with a ‘T’, not a ‘B’. That number has been challenged by many in the past, but no one has offered a better number with anything remotely factual. On July 22 the Center for Strategic and International Studies released a new study commissioned by McAfee (who previously quoted the trillion dollar figure) saying that damages are much less. From a Los Angeles Times article on the release:

Cyberattacks may be draining as much as $140 billion and half a million jobs from the U.S. economy each year, according to a new study that splashes water on a previous estimate of $1 trillion in annual losses.

“That’s our best guess,” said James Andrew Lewis, the director of the technology and public policy program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

James Andrew Lewis’ comment calling it a “best guess” is not assuring. The one trillion dollar figure cited for all those years was no better than a guess, as the surveys it relied on were far from a solid methodology. Regardless, the figure of $140 billion seems more rationale on the surface. Contrasting that is the claim that half a million jobs are “drained” from the U.S. economy each year. How can cybercrime conceivably lead to that? Reading on in the article:

Lewis and co-author Stewart Baker, a distinguished visiting fellow at CSIS, said that they were still working to determine cybercrime’s impact on innovation. They suggested a follow-up report might come out with a bigger number.

But preliminarily, they found U.S. losses to be somewhere between $20 billion to $140 billion, or about 1% of the nation’s GDP. They pegged job losses at 508,000.

“The effect of the net loss of jobs could be small, but if a good portion of these jobs were high-end manufacturing jobs that moved overseas because of intellectual property losses, the effect could be wide ranging,” Lewis said.

Right after the hint of a more rational number, CSIS immediately makes it a worthless number when they say it is really somewhere between $20 billion and $140 billion. In the world of sanity and statistics, that range is unreasonable. Further, Lewis goes on to say that some of the 508,000 jobs lost are due to “high-end manufacturing jobs moved overseas because of intellectual property losses”. Huh? High-end manufacturing jobs are moving overseas because of corporate budgets more than cybercrime. Such a claim should be backed up by a long list of examples showing companies losing intellectual property, and then reporting it to law enforcement or their shareholders, as well as SEC filings.

We moved from the fictional trillion number, to an overly wide range in the tens or hundreds of billions, and got an odd claim of half a million jobs lost due to cybercrime. This new study did little to clear things up.

@Stilgherrian makes another great point in his ZDNet piece, that everyone should take to heart when reading cybercrime statistics:

If we’re killing one cybercrime myth, let’s kill another — one which coincidentally emerged from McAfee — namely that the wealth transfer due to hacking represents some historically-unprecedented economic disaster.

Ultimately, we also have to remember that any cybercrime statistics coming from a company like McAfee are suspect, as they directly benefit them while they sell computer security solutions.

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